NEW YORK, May 10, 2017 -- The consensus forecast of annual real GDP growth in 2017 fell for a second consecutive month as increased optimism about the pace of growth in the second quarter of this year failed to offset weaker-than-expected growth in the first quarter, according to the May issue of Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators.
A weak Q1 impacted the forecasted annual increase, bringing it to 2.1 percent in 2017 – 0.1 of a percentage point less than a month ago and 0.2 of a percentage point less than two months earlier.
"This forecast still compares favorably with respective year-over-year and Q4-over-Q4 increases of 1.6 percent and 2.0 percent in 2016," said Randell E. Moore, executive editor of Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators. "However, it is no doubt a disappointment to those who presumed the economy might get a big shot of fiscal stimulus this year."
Other consensus findings from the May issue of Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey include:
- The consensus forecast of annual real GDP growth in 2018 remained unchanged at 2.4% for a fifth consecutive month.
- The consensus forecast of 2017 annual growth in real nonresidential fixed investment jumped a full percentage point from a month earlier to 4.1%. That would mark the largest increase in this variable since 2014.
- The consensus forecast of total car and light trucks sales in 2017 and 2018 fell for a second, straight month, strongly suggesting that vehicle sales hit their cyclical peak in 2016.
- About 78 percent of the panelists believe the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 50 additional basis points this year, with 83 percent anticipating the next rate rise to occur at the Federal Reserve's mid-June meeting.
About Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators
Established in 1976, Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators has become synonymous with the latest in expert opinion on the future performance of the U.S. economy by presenting the forecasts of 50 economists from the nation's largest and most respected manufacturers, banks, insurance companies, and brokerage firms. The newsletter compiles the experts' individual and combined forecasts for the current and following year for variables including, but not limited to, real GDP, consumer price index, industrial production, real disposable personal income, pre-tax corporate profits, unemployment rates and real net exports.
For more information on Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators please visit wolterskluwerlr.com/bluechip.
About Wolters Kluwer
Wolters Kluwer Legal & Regulatory U.S. is a part of Wolters Kluwer N.V. (AEX: WKL), a global leader in information services and solutions for professionals in the health, tax and accounting, risk and compliance, finance and legal sectors. We help our customers make critical decisions every day by providing expert solutions that combine deep domain knowledge with specialized technology and services.
Wolters Kluwer reported 2016 annual revenues of €4.3 billion. The company, headquartered in Alphen aan den Rijn, the Netherlands, serves customers in over 180 countries, maintains operations in over 40 countries and employs 19,000 people worldwide.