Wolters Kluwer has published the July 2024 issue of its Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, which finds all but one of the panel’s leading economists anticipating a Fed rate cut before the end of 2024. The forecast arrives amidst signs that the economy and inflation are both slowing as the labor market moves into better balance.
Since 1976, Blue Chip Economic Indicators has offered reliable monthly forecasts sourced from an expert panel of economists that are employed by some of America's largest and most respected manufacturers, banks, insurance companies.
Highlights include:
- Most economists (55%) anticipate that the first Fed rate cut will take place at the September FOMC meeting, down from 64% in the June survey. Another 23% expect the first cut in November and 20% in December, both up from last month.
- A vast majority of economists (77%) don’t expect that the timing of the Fed’s rate decisions will be influenced by the U.S. national elections in November.
- The consensus forecast calls for PCE inflation to slow further in Q3 before hovering around 2.1% and 2.2% over the rest of the forecast period. This would place it just slightly above the Fed’s 2% target.
- Economists forecast only a slight increase in the unemployment rate as GDP slows to below trend. The consensus looks for the quarterly average to rise to 4.1% by year’s end and then to 4.2% in the first three quarters of 2025.
Each month’s Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey highlights the predictions of each individual panel member as well as a consensus – or average – forecast for the direction of variables such as real gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index and the unemployment rate.
